Double Irreversibilities and Endogenous Learning in Land Conversion Decisions

نویسندگان

  • Shikha Marwah
  • Jinhua Zhao
چکیده

We show the effects of uncertainty, ecological and economic irreversibility, and endogenous learning on land preservation decisions for species conservation. We compare the optimal decisions of three types of decision makers: an experimenting decision maker who recognizes the endogeneity of information, a real options decision maker who ignores the endogeneity but recognizes the future availability of more information, and a nonlearning decision maker who ignores the possibility of future information altogether. While recognizing information endogeneity always leads to more land preservation, its effect is dampened by economic irreversibility but enhanced by ecological irreversibility. The prospect of learning in the future in itself may or may not lead to more preservation depending on the relative importance of the two irreversibilities. When ecological irreversibility dominates land preservation irreversibility, the experimenting decision maker preserves the largest amount of land, followed by the real options decision maker, and the nonlearning decision maker.

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تاریخ انتشار 2007